Sunday, October 31, 2010

Digging line path heavyweight heavyweights will be big decrypted 10 as

 Policy pace with inflation out of high uncertainty, so that in 2010 still mystery. Fund for the market outlook and forecast this year, both a high degree of consensus expectations, more intense competition debut Yu.
In most funds It appears that if the policy, the economy can not provide directional selection Dengjun, the market will be limited space for the rise, increased volatility, investment hot spots scattered, the lack of overall opportunities. consumer industry, information industry, new industries, regional plate, low carbon economy,UGG shoes, introduction of margin trading and stock index futures, have become the focus of the investment opportunities the Fund.
big bang
market trends operation of the market situation in 2010, the Fund expected high degree of consensus that the market valuation of pressure, up Space is limited, may exceed the expected rate shock.
Schmidt appears in the fund, the high valuation of the overall market, especially in the high valuation of small cap stocks, limiting further room to rise. China Bonus is even more pessimistic bias that the recovery of the real economy led to increased demand for funds, the stock market trend is difficult to occur the opportunity, as time goes by, the overall market, there will be downward pressure on valuations.
In addition, market volatility Most E Fund Growth Fund and has similar expectations that inflation surged as investors and exacerbated concerns about macroeconomic policy adjustments, is expected to market in a more severe shock being.
bubble as the market valuation of structured gradually, the Fund's investment in this market, concerns about the risk the more prominent. Southern High Growth said that while the 2010 is quite optimistic about economic performance, but the phased expansion of the market turmoil and the subsequent range of investment risk is likely to increase significantly.
Industrial convertible bonds also believes that small and medium capitalization companies with the market average of more than 30 times the dynamic valuation, and large capitalization companies with small market capitalization of the company's valuation gap widening, determine the first half of the market, there are certain risks and if follow-up continued tightening of monetary policy, market risk also exists the possibility-expected. If tightening occurred in the first half, second half of the market, but there may be opportunities.
worth noting that the advantages of power that the CCB, the two key point to change the current market turmoil is expected to run the pattern, first, a good first quarter performance data for financial stocks and the possible policy heaters may be able to achieve the size of conversion to open up the market's valuation of space; one in the second half, When the market is gradually accepted the inevitability of withdrawal policy, and economic recovery trend in the real economy into earnings growth for the firm, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of the rapid decline in the current valuation is expected to open space.
market style bias tape
Fund investment style preferences for the future, it seems, in most funds, small cap stocks have been a structural foam, the introduction of stock index futures on the large-cap stocks have a positive impact on long-term future investment style in the large-cap stocks will be biased.
and 2007 compared to the highest point of the end of 2009 small cap index is only 1.3% lower, blue chip and small cap companies in the different valuation has reached the highest level in history. in the fund seems, and this bias is bound to be corrected, style conversion may be occurred.
In fact, some funds have started in Q4 of 2009 transfer positions, for example, Cathay Pacific Taurus innovative growth that although the weak economy and stock market equilibrium in the state, many small-cap stocks can appear in the bottom-up independent of the market, investment opportunities, but the integrity of such a large valuation premium is not sustainable. Thus, the Fund carried out gradually during the quarter the size of the switch plate style, will focus on the valuation of investments with lower risk large market capitalization companies and some consumer goods company with steady growth.
also said ABN AMRO TEDA market value of the preferred, experienced sustained 4 months after the small cap market, the Fund will give more consideration to the broader market lower relative valuations shares the opportunity, and some of the valuation is too high to make the appropriate reduction of small-cap stocks.
be noted that, Castrol value-added services that the market likely to continue in the beginning of the next phase of strong small-cap, but the style of conversion to the broader market increase the probability of the main reasons is the high valuations in the small cap premium. This conversion is not necessarily the way to complete the attack, but may be in shock or down the process of implementation. but the market shares in the conversion process excess returns will not be much.
style conversion may not happen overnight, but as resources, Xinhua said pan, the bottom of the valuation at a historic region of blue chips have better investment opportunities, when the so-called thematic investing in the whole market flooding, the vigilance may be necessary to endure pain.
hot investment themes scattered
2010 years to do investment, will face more uncertainty, the majority of funds in view, if the policy, the economy is difficult Dengjun provide directional selection, then the market will behave as hot spots scattered, and the lack of overall opportunity.
2020 Great expectations, investors concerned about the points coming from investment in the subject, including the World Expo, the international tourist island of Hainan, the regional economy, a number of policies to support the emerging industries, as well as margin trading, stock index futures and so on. Annual Report of results and distribution program will be the main line through the first quarter of the fundamentals.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin leader pointed out that focus on emerging industries, new technologies and new materials. The Government's focus has shifted to economic restructuring, and for new industries, new technologies, new materials will be tax, financial, finance, resources, more support in all aspects, it will speed up development, but also will enjoy a high market valuation, the next two years is the key to China's economic development transition period, we will be able to continue to improve labor productivity, with sustainable development in all industry segments devoted more attention.
the recent speculation turns to the regional economy suffered, Tianfu focus that the regional economic development is not balanced, mainly for the concentration of GDP over the eastern provinces and municipalities, regional economic development is uneven, and led to many social problems. In this way, based on resources and geographical endowments regional policy will be endless efforts to promote sustained than expected may be the most consistent with regional comparative advantage is expected to accelerate the emergence of industrial clusters.
Castrol topics that focus on the first quarter of configuration in the Xinjiang region, the new energy (smart grid, UHV and energy saving), the four large investment themes of agriculture and the military, focusing on agricultural prices and changes in inflation expectations, to prevent risk of subsequent market correction.
in the sector allocation strategy, HSBC Jinxin Long Teng said, will focus on focus on the following three aspects: 1, computer hardware and software, semiconductors, and represented the third generation communications information industry; 2 to energy saving, new energy, represented by low-carbon industries; 3 to the media, medicine, biotechnology and retail as on behalf of the consumer industry. We believe in preserving the economic growth target base is completed, the Government will also have the ability to change the economic growth mode and adjust the industrial structure. Meanwhile, new industries and consumer sector is not only low energy consumption, environmental protection, for increasing employment significant role in driving.
financial sector, plate, once again become a hot topic in the market. Chinese market selection, selection of the top ten Chinese strategic holding, a is leveraging the entire financial sector, the reality is that nearly two days, the financial sector, especially banking stocks, the market was very strong.
investment opportunities for the financial sector, the fund how many expectations. Lion flexible configuration that and financial sector in the past 5 months continued to underperform the market, or the first quarter of 2010 over revenue opportunities. active funds. results may be high growth, in addition to carrying out the business of financial innovation will lead the valuation of the financial sector gradually out of the depression.
preferred view at the Xinhua, the current relatively undervalued blue chip financial stocks in particular, a positive view that short-term down is a good time to increase the allocation.
lending a certain extent limited scale, but underestimate the value and profitability of this part of the recovery will wash away the risk. Since December began intensive introduction, the real estate sector, statistics, real estate holdings into the fourth quarter of the Fund's largest industry, market value of 92.384 billion yuan shares plummeted to 70.891 billion yuan. However, it should be noted that a large proportion of the Fund after the reduction of real estate stocks, for the sector investment opportunities in the future, but it is close attention to its introduction of capital market regulatory policies exacerbated the pessimistic expectations, taking into account both the real economy or capital markets, real estate have played a pivotal position, drop in price up to regulation of the amount of objective fact difficult to do, the real estate industry effects on the final regulation greater impact on economic growth structure, the same significance on the capital market.
the overall fixed asset investment, investment-related nonferrous metals, steel, building materials, construction machinery and other industries on the middle reaches, and home appliances, decoration and other downstream industries boom generation worry about, so the current risk of not fully spread. that cyclical industries such as real estate, there are periodic opportunities. policy concern in the real estate sector under control, once the steady rise of housing transactions will still be optimistic about investment opportunities in real estate sector.
Bank of Communications Schroder said blue-chip, real estate policy is expected despite the repression, However, the difference between expectations and reality of the event, then there are periodic opportunities.
heavyweight abusing Line: .
big woods, what birds are, the current market is filled with all kinds of power, is extremely difficult to control for the main, the only way is to Wage Keng, the retail investors who were all buried alive.
nearest, with significance and long-term effects of the pit is the end of 2008 to early 2009, a high degree of between points in the 1800-2100 and 2000-2200 in March 2009 between the points between the two pits, mining is the main force of these pits are not up then killed, the reaction lag of the financial and real estate.
Finance and real estate, together with coal colored steel, the age of five golden flowers blue-chip recent countless heroes Jingzhe Yao. The fundamentals on several major parts, in addition to real estate is not bad, there is good contrast of individual plates, but the price has not been very big improvement, and even into the mire of 阴跌.
logic
digging in digging the main form, the play is certainly the main standard-bearer, may be equally suitable for hot money institutions.
the so-called trench, is the share price over time sideways, suddenly broke down choice, this breakthrough with rapid, shrinkage characteristics. and this sideways and fell from the fundamentals are, about a week down cycle in general. down followed by a post-up slight concussion or low sideways (also known as Bottom), and soon returned to the previous high price point (commonly known as pit edge position), and in this position a lot of volume released.
time There are three stock price movements only, first breaking the previous high strength, the second is near the high sideways and the third is down quickly. The first two are about to signal upside, the last you will need to be careful, maybe price the trend is headed out.
if the stock price did not fall, after digging the stock will move up rapidly, while the pit is dug in front of a real diamond pit.
psychologically from the investment perspective, is the main steep decline in the hold-up by retail investors, who now has a profit in order to avoid less profitable, have chosen this play, save the profits and capital, this time as part of the main collection of chips; and again pulled to the pits along the share price when the hold-up mass exodus of retail investors has been a long time, again took the opportunity to collect the main chip, also pulled up after the much smoother.
the more obvious examples are the Baiyun Mountain A (000522.SZ) .2009 in the first half of September, the Unit is basically in sideways, but at the same time with the plate stock, such as Sea King bio (000078.SZ) keep a record high, the spread of a stream is good for the pharmaceutical sector, the stock is strange that nice view here, has been sideways.
9 月份 stock later fell rapidly following the broader market round, and this decline is the shrinkage, the proof of the main did not flee, forced to cut the meat, only small, scattered on the floor to spend a month in January .10, the shares back to the pits along the nearby, and then entered the main rise, the stock jumped nearly 1 times.
extended to the market trend, the end of 2008 the introduction of any negative fundamentals, the stock index not only rose, but ushered in shrinkage plunge, but soon returned, helped by multi-year market around 2100 along the pit position, followed by a break the previous high Changyang, stock straight 2300.
banks, brokerage lead time digging
blue chip, market popular five Golden mm finance, real estate, coal, nonferrous metals, iron and steel. now only five remaining flowers are still blooming financial one, and the remaining four were inexplicable to be vain mind.
1 月 11 日 margin stock index futures and the official green light, in the interests of the center is Gaokaidizou brokerage stocks, the financial index K online so leave an ugly big Yinxian. The same is 1 month, the market is full of rumor contraction official bank credit and Yawei Shigekura news, but the banks only because the latter was up last week scenery.
fact, in addition to interest rates, foreign reserves, the market can not find Any financial hit can be expected to utter, but financial stocks in the first high sideways throughout January, and then evolved into the current sideways trend of the low plunging.
look at another property a locomotive mm. state regulation The a major challenge.
remaining weight in the local coal supply tight one; second benefit electricity demand; three because of the downstream steel market, and steel prices are rising cycle of increased demand for coke. As a rule, coal and Steel prices are good with the fundamentals. But the market often do not follow the common sense out the card, the two plates are caught 急跌.
The decline in weight is no sign of a lack of fundamental support, is the largest natural suspicion of digging , that the most typical or financial. financial index trends have two major characteristics of digging: a sudden shock through the end of the bottom box, and sideways into the shrinkage of; fundamentals, no big bad, but a good advantage.
real estate, coal and other rights are bad there is not that important, or else in : pit along the months of waiting for sun
miscarriage of justice on the court affect the results of the competition, in reality, can identify the weight was line in a variety of technical drawings, the stock is not really in the excavation, where it dug for admission? recognition there are many ways in addition to the test Yindie volume, sideways cycle,bailey UGG boots, see the key to breaking point strength and decided to follow-up observation of the disk Yeshi an important indicator of trading behavior.
first time with the key focus points of the recovering period. the sooner the recovery of the stock along the more powerful pit, precisely recovered somewhat similar to that rebound, pit along the price quickly recovered, while the strong volume, breaking the latter point, the best buy at this time.
but to prevent false breakout, and fitted double-headed form, investors should be below the previous high set at 3% stop bit. Once stock did not enter sideways, but quickly fell below the stop-loss, the bearish trend of late, better sidelines quickly. such as the weight of the previous period strong stock CITIC Bank (market shares) (601,998 . SH), the previous high point of 8.49, but breakthroughs in heavy volume failed, leaving the shadow line, just out of the final form of a double-headed.
Secondly, in line with outperform, bald sun, the three conditions of volume and price go Admission may be considered. The market shares of the so-called criteria of the strong is often weak relative to the broader market, the strong stock must outperform the market, it must be the Yang Xian show, volume, breaking the previous high point, but more on the film stock has Yangxian Herd can not be blind.
positive, such as real estate stocks in the Fountain (000005.SZ), 11 December 25th is a great time to buy. negative example is the Emori Development (002146.SZ), Yunnan City to vote (600239.SH) a new high while the one without Guangtou Yangxian appear two to Chengjiao Liang did not hit a new high.
K in addition to the Japanese study are particularly important interpretation of the language disk. trenching small since it is the main buried alive bulk of the act, then the access panel and control disk disk will be very obvious signs.
the disk on the reverse phenomenon occurs when the Crater of Diamonds became a burial site to become. the main chip is making use of their plate, stock to the next a high level, that is, when their collective shipments, this time will also be enlarged volume, but the disk point of view, a very heavy selling pressure, the shadow line on the left is so out of the two-headed stock.
results even by 10 years there will be big heavyweights as
week, economic data get to the bottom in 2009,cheap UGG boots, not only reflect China's rapid economic reversal, the first quarter of 2009 increased 6.2%, 7.9% in the second quarter, third quarter growth of 9.1%, 10.7% in the fourth quarter. Overall, the upward trend of the real economy has established the formation of long-term good of the securities market.
addition, with the margin trading, stock index futures launch date is expected to further clear, hot blue chips are expected to shift, the market will break the disc Bureau. This style conversion on Friday V-reversal in the market is emerging, led by banks and other heavyweights, the main stock index reversed the trend appears Tengyun, haste by the counter, fell back nearly 3,100-point mark.
addition to strong economic growth and policy expectations, the annual report of listed companies are as good as picking appearance after another important consideration. Therefore, the current value of the stock selection, we focus on the results of several years growth, and greater influence on the market weight of the company.
Specifically, the selected first delineated for the industrial class of stock companies, on China's real economic growth in the non-negligible contribution to the force; second, even four years to achieve increased performance, from 2006 to 2008 net profit growth rate were more than 20 % 2009 results are also expected to achieve high growth (unpublished Annual Report Announcements, and its performance last year, the first three quarters year on year increase of more than 70%); again, selected the larger stock market value, the latest total market capitalization of more than 200 billion yuan, with even hundreds of billions.
the shares once formed a concept, the concept of time shares, the market concept, the concept of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the concept of scarce resources, the concept of gold stocks, the concept of the CSI 100.
promotion dollar depreciation related: gold has the dual properties of metals and financial and have the hedge store of value. As the financial attributes of gold from the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. economy and the dollar price of gold greater impact on the price of gold priced in dollars, the dollar depreciation led to excess liquidity trends increase, due to avoid the gold The corresponding risk function is sought, on the contrary, usually weaker. It is worth mentioning that, inflation, and a major international political, war events are generated on the gold price had an important impact.
largest gold mining production Company: Gold mining is the largest manufacturer, ranked by gold production in major gold mining companies in the world, ranked 10th, the Purple Mountain Gold Association, gold and copper by China as China's largest gold mine, Group 2009 January-September production of 18,078 kg of gold bullion mining gross margin 71.56%; Mineral 4,604 kg of gold concentrate, gross margin was 50.7%; processing gold 31,854 kg; 51,094 tons of copper concentrate, gross profit margin 66.34%; zinc 75,648 tons of wool interest rate 16.72%; iron ore 841,676 tons, gross profit margin 60.22%; Group's overall gross profit margin was 33.71%, down 6.46 percentage points; without refining the overall product gross margin was 69.27% over the previous year decreased by 3.35 over the same period percentage points.
resources: to maintain the gold metal resources / reserves of listed companies in the domestic gold industry in the first place, as of June 30, 2009 the company has a total of 266 prospecting, a total area of 6567.36km2.
scale advantages: The company has over the mineral resources of Fujian, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Guizhou, Jilin, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Anhui and Sichuan, 20 provinces (autonomous regions), and shares of Canadian mining companies PinnacleMinesLtd., the British mining companies RidgeMiningP.LC, were to become its largest shareholder.
cost advantage: The company is China's gold industry in the production of one of the lowest cost producers, but also the world's lowest production costs of similar enterprises in production, one of China's large mining companies consolidated gold production cost average $ 380 / ounce or so, the company mined gold production costs for the national average of 76%, compared with domestic counterparts, with significant cost advantages; 2009 the first half of the overall gross margin was 33.42%.
letter of the securities: to maintain a closing price, the price-earnings ratio for 2009 and 2010, respectively 35.44 times and 23.14 times lower than similar foreign companies an average of 37 times earnings. Zijin Mining to maintain a price-earnings ratio, target price 12.30 yuan.
Dongguan Securities: to maintain the on the highest level in history, we believe that under the continued weakness in the dollar gold price still maintain a strong run,UGGs, but upside limited.
We maintain our rating recommendation on the company, increased by 6-month target price to 12 yuan, the corresponding 2010 price-earnings ratio of 33 times.
United Securities: to maintain -2011 year earnings forecast: 0.29 yuan / share, 0.37 yuan / share and 0.48 yuan / share. based on the company with sufficient resources protection and development prospects, as well as in technology, management, cost and other aspects of the core competitive advantages, we believe that the long-term prospects optimistic about the hedge between the properties of each product will effectively reduce the risk of cyclical fluctuations.
Wuliangye
wine food concept, deep into the 40 concept, the concept of the broader market, high concept, pre-earnings guidance by the concept of the concept of Chengdu SAR, Shanghai the concept of deep-300.
brand value: tons / year, to become the world's largest wine production base.
First Capital: solve the case, the performance of the company will fully reflect the situation. In addition, independent assessment of listed companies in turn speed up to catch the pace of the market value of Maotai. Considering these factors, we forecast earnings before the 2009-2011 raised to 0.78 yuan, 1.21 yuan and 1.61 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price is 26 times 2010 earnings, to maintain , 2009-2011 is now expected earnings per share were 0.836 yuan, 1.269 yuan and 1.547 yuan. We specifically pointed out: ;. Since 2009 Annual Report is expected to exceed market consensus expectations 0.79 yuan, and the PEG is much smaller than 1, we maintain our Buy rating .6 month target price of 38-44 dollars, corresponding to 30-35 times 2010 earnings, still 21% - 41% upside.
Essence Securities: to maintain yuan and 1.35 yuan to 2010 earnings per share valuation of 30 times earnings, given 12-month target price of 34.8 yuan, the investment rating remains concept, the concept of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, funds Shigekura concept, the concept of sending switch.
share reform by restructuring: November 2007, the Company completed share reform restructuring: the company in addition 40,646.9 square meters of land use right of all assets and liabilities and Yunnan City to vote replacement of operating real estate assets.
non-public offering: April 2009, the company is 15.18 yuan / share non-public offering of 13,175 shares, fund-raising total of 1,999,965,000 yuan.
additional project income guarantee: Company and Kunming Municipal People's Government on the level of development within the scope of sharing the proceeds of land transfer. This can all be under contract to sell land plots through bidding, auction and listing to sell, the entire transfer of land after deducting the total price of all land development The total cost of extraction according to the relevant policies of the Fund, net income after land transfer by 50% of the company to benefit.
land bank: corporate real estate business has about 250 million square meters of land reserves, of which 1.37 million square meters area of interest The average land cost about 450 yuan / square meter. the company is actively increasing the real estate land reserves, such as a joint venture with China Vanke, a joint venture with China Shipping and China Merchants Property Development (market share it) cooperation.
Great Wall Securities: given to latest price of 24.35 yuan, respectively, corresponding to earnings ratio for 2010-2011 is 10 times, 7.5 times, seriously underestimated, even at the present valuation of the market pessimism as measured under the conservative given the company in 2010 valuation of 15 times earnings, the company reasonable price should be around 40 yuan, and if the price-earnings ratio of 20 times the normal valuation levels and long-term measure, a reasonable price at 50 yuan.'s latest stock price from 40 yuan a conservative estimate, there are more than 60% of the space, giving earnings per share to 0.20 yuan, 0.26 yuan, to Oct. 27 closing price of 24.93 yuan, corresponding to 2009, and 124 times 2010 earnings, 95 times, remained maintain the may be postponed until about 1000 acres in 2010 to sell or even sell in 2009 can not be settled in the year. So cut 2009 earnings per share to 2.39 yuan, but if this results in 2010 will be more secure, is expected to 4.48 yuan. long-term perspective, the company is still a good investment target, to maintain the This will also affect the company originally planned to land in a development, and thus we reduce the company's earnings per share 2009,2010, respectively, 2.40 yuan and 3.50 yuan, but does not affect the company's long-term value. Therefore, we maintain the 2008 Yunnan City to vote depth report target price of 41 yuan, corresponding to 2009,2010, respectively 17.08 times earnings and 11.71 times, maintain the company into 40 concepts, the Fund Shigekura concept, the concept of the broader market, earnings guidance increased pre-concept, the concept of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, QFII ownership concept, the concept of the card 100, the concept of equity incentive.
major shareholders - Zhang Jindong: October 2009 announced The Suning Appliance Co., Ltd. holds a total of 33.94% stake in the company.
leading domestic home appliance chain industry: home appliances company as the largest franchise chain operator, one of the prominent position in the industry, have a certain competitive advantage, The strong sales of terminal network, and with hundreds of famous product manufacturers at home and abroad to establish a stable business relationship.
logistics concepts: the company has leased and self-built in the country of 9.8 million square meters of warehousing and 68,000 square meters The area of distribution operations, which meet the operational requirements of the professional staff and distribution, including owned and leased line with operational requirements, including a variety of commercial vehicles, a maximum daily delivery capacity has reached 59,000.
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