2010 will be an illusory economic expectations start to the end of the year you grief

 2010: to be a false economy expected to begin to the end of the year you sad?
Recently, the fear of inflation, the optimism of economic recovery into the mainstream.
Government policy is a Turn right, ? can only say that this possibility was increasing.
In this case, maybe Krugman's article can be a warning province.
2010: to be a false economy to expected start to the end of the year you sad? wait and see. Perhaps the third quarter, the data speak.
Krugman: Dreaming 1937
this financial news coming soon: the next job report may show that U.S. employment growth is the first time in two years. the next GDP report is likely that the U.S. economy late in 2009, showing steady growth. many of the comments about on stage with confidence. We have heard the end Economic stimulus plan to reverse the federal government and the Fed bailout measures such appeal mm voice will become louder and louder.
However, if these appeal to be heard, we will repeat the mistakes of 1937. At that time, The Fed and the Roosevelt administration concluded that the Great Depression is over, the U.S. economy to throw away the crutches of the time. Subsequently, the spending cuts, tightening monetary policy again soon plunged into the U.S. economy mm bottomless abyss.
this should not happen again. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. Bernanke (Ben Bernanke), Council of Economic Advisers and director of the president Christina. Romer (Christina Romer), to study the Great Depression is known experts. Miss Luo Mo clear unmistakably warned that to prevent a repeat of events in 1937. However, bearing in mind the lessons of the past who, sometimes, to repeat the past.
When you read the economic news, the first thing to remember is that occasionally a few a good number do not mean anything, even in the real economy in deep recession, unable to extricate themselves long-term, it will be a few bright spots emerge from time to time. For example, in early 2002, the report showed the U.S. economy is at an average annual rate of 5.8% growth. But the unemployment rate is still rising for a year.
1996 the early, initial reports indicate that annual rate, Japan's economy is more than rapid growth rate of 12%, ecstatic Japanese declared: Japanese economy has finally entered a period of self-driven recovery. Highlights often only a statistical illusion. But more importantly, these bright spots are usually the companies often will cut output; once disposed of, the company will once again raise the output, so the GDP data to a sudden growth. Unfortunately, if consumer spending and long-term investment in such basic needs are not rising, this As a result of growth in stock to rebound just a one-time event only.
So, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remains grim.
a good year in the past decade, economic growth is the boom and the surge in housing market consumer spending-driven. These two growth engines will not start again. In view of the last housing bubble left behind empty houses and apartments throughout the United States is still dotted around the camel, a new round of housing market boom is not the case. The housing bubble burst in the buzzing sound of a loss of 11 trillion wealth of consumers, now also unable to return to the old kind of br> what is left? surge in business investment may actually help to boost the economy at the moment. But it is difficult to see, such investments come from: Manufacturing positive excess labor troubles; a serious surplus of office supplies are driving the rapid deterioration of commercial rents.
exports can serve as savior? The U.S. trade deficit dropped once the pressure eased recession. But the deficit is again increasing, this situation is partly due to China and other surplus countries refused to adjust their monetary policy.
So, you're about to hear the good news is just a temporary bright spot, it does not represent the United States has entered a sustained recovery. However, the policy-makers will misunderstanding of these messages, and then repeat the 1937 mistake? In fact, they have begun to do so.
Obama's fiscal stimulus plan for the impact of GDP and employment is expected to peak in the middle of this year, and then began to dim. too early: Why mass unemployment is still continuing in the case of withdrawal of support? Congress should have a few months ago, when the recession will worsen, will exceed the expected duration of the signs have become apparent when to draw the second round of stimulus. But Congress did nothing, and we will soon see the beauty of fantasy action figures may make the possibility even more remote.
the same time, all the talk of the Fed has focused on the implementation of the mortgage-backed securities (another measure). This approach is equivalent to monetary contraction, even if the Fed does not directly raise interest rates mm and Bernanke faces enormous pressure to do so.
before in all too late whether the Fed will realize that the battle with the economic downturn has no end? Congress will realize this? If they can not, then 2010 will be an illusory economic expectations began to mourn the end of the year.